I haven’t been able to get this post from Scott Alexander out of my head, both because it is interesting and because it goes in a direction I did not expect. The post is series of whimsical scenarios where a human is employed to use judgement, but in fact a simple heuristic outperforms human judgement. The heuristic is good enough a getting the probabilities right that it would be more accurate to replace human judgment with a rock with the heuristic inscribed on it. This snippet will give you the feel:
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Let's Hear What the Rock Has to Say
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I haven’t been able to get this post from Scott Alexander out of my head, both because it is interesting and because it goes in a direction I did not expect. The post is series of whimsical scenarios where a human is employed to use judgement, but in fact a simple heuristic outperforms human judgement. The heuristic is good enough a getting the probabilities right that it would be more accurate to replace human judgment with a rock with the heuristic inscribed on it. This snippet will give you the feel: